The market has retreated from record highs, oil is elevated, and geopolitical risk isn’t going away.

Not to mention, September has historically been a tough month for stocks, especially with a quadruple witch expiration on September 19, which often marks major turning points in the markets.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Maybe nothing. However, this is the time of year when one of Wall Street’s oldest sayings makes its annual appearance.

“Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.”

The strategy is to sell around the Jewish New Year and buy back after Yom Kippur, roughly 10 days later. There have been plenty of years when that would have been a profitable move. Overall, though, the results are mixed. Further, being fully invested and not trying to time the market has been the most rewarding long term investing strategy.

Avoid Blindly Following The Calendar

Rosh Hashanah usually arrives during September or early October, already a historically challenging period for equities. So is there really a Rosh Hashanah effect—or is this another version of September seasonality?

Decades ago, there may have been more behind the pattern. Wall Street had significant Jewish participation, and reduced activity around the High Holidays could affect liquidity. In today’s global and electronic markets, alongside the explosion of algorithmic and retail trading, that’s a much harder argument to make.

Seasonality Isn’t A Catalyst

Unlike years in the past, there are plenty of negative catalysts to worry about in 2026. Oil prices remain elevated and geopolitical uncertainty continues currently on two fronts (Ukraine/Russia and the seemingly never ending war with Iran). Inflation hasn’t disappeared and the Fed’s target of 2% is unrealistic. The bond market is sending its own signals, and the Federal Reserve remains a major wildcard.

Yet through all of it, the stock market has shown remarkable resilience.  Even with the decline this week, the S&P 500 index is within a few percentage points of its all-time high. 

What Are The Indicators Saying?

That’s why, here at the Stock Trader Network, we view “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” as a yellow flag—not an automatic sell signal.

For investors, price action has to confirm the seasonal thesis.

Are the major indexes breaking support? Not yet.
Is market breadth deteriorating? Yes.
Are yields and oil pushing higher? Yes.
Is volatility expanding? Yes.
Are investors selling rallies instead of buying dips? Yes. 

Conclusion:

If the above indicators continue in its current direction, the old Wall Street saying could become much more interesting.

But there’s another side to the trade.

If stocks can absorb high oil prices, geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty and negative September seasonality without breaking down, don’t ignore that message. A market that refuses to decline when it has plenty of reasons to do so is telling you something.

So don’t sell simply because Rosh Hashanah is approaching. Put the saying on your radar, identify your levels and let the tape make the call.

The calendar may provide the setup.

But price action provides the trade.

By Joel Elconin, Chief Technician, Stock Trader Network