Stock Trader Network Chief Economist Blu Putnam is taking a portfolio manager’s approach to the NFL this season, using Kalshi prediction markets to test whether market-generated probabilities can produce an edge across an entire slate of games.

Putnam has built an experimental NFL model around Kalshi’s team power rankings and plans to track several different portfolio-construction methods throughout the season. His Week 1 draft allocates a hypothetical $1,000 across all 16 games using three approaches—equal weighting, a binomial risk adjustment and a more aggressive enhanced risk adjustment.

The Stock Trader Network Chief Economist aims to see whether spreading risk across the full portfolio can produce positive results over time.

“I don’t have to be very good on any one, I just have to be 51%, 52% overall,” Putnam said Wednesday on PreMarket Prep. “There’s 16 games this week. You know, if I can get nine out of 16 right I might just make some money.”

The difference between the portfolio methods becomes clear at the top of Putnam’s Week 1 board. Kalshi assigned the Los Angeles Chargers an 82% probability in their matchup with Arizona, the highest reading on the slate.

An equal-weight portfolio puts $62.50 on the position. The binomial-adjusted approach increases that to $103.93, while the enhanced model pushes the allocation to $232.09.

Jacksonville, at 79%, receives the second-largest enhanced position at $162.48, followed by Detroit at 75% with $111.43. Lower-confidence positions receive progressively less capital.

Putnam said the model is a work in progress, and plans to track three or four portfolio methods throughout the season.

“Prediction markets are complementary to everything we already have,” he said. “It’s a yes or no, it’s a very clear prediction market.”

Kalshi’s power rankings offer what Putnam called a “pundit free” starting point. Now the question is whether those probabilities can be turned into a portfolio that actually makes money.