“The key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach, it’s not the brain.”
A viewer in the PreMarket Prep chat dropped that Peter Lynch line this morning, and it paired nicely with what a member in the Stock Trader Network Think Tank pointed out before the bell—the market doesn’t have to make sense, you just have to go with the flow.
Right now, testing your stomach means watching the market’s favorite trade (semiconductors) get taken to the woodshed even as the broader indices hold their ground.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) broke below its 200-day moving average and continues to bleed this morning after South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 5.3% overnight. AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) is down another 8% ahead of the open, though Stock Trader Network’s Chief Market Strategist Dennis Dick is watching for an oversold turn at a key technical level: “I like the AMD off the $450 for a bounce.”
While chip hardware takes heat—compounded by Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) sliding on a soft Q1 EPS guide and a Reuters report that Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) chips are piling up in Hong Kong as Beijing withholds import approval—money is rotating into software, consumer names, and defensives.
Here is where the flow is moving this morning:
- Software & Ad-Tech Step Up: While semiconductors lag, software and ad-tech are picking up the slack. AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) is ripping higher after crushing Q3 and guiding Q4 revenue well past expectations, joined by beat-and-raise prints from Figma (NYSE: FIG), Fastly (NASDAQ: FSLY), Unity (NYSE: U), and Magnite (NASDAQ: MGNI). Meanwhile, Box (NYSE: BOX) is rallying out of its BoxWorks event after announcing an enterprise AI partnership with Nvidia.
- Wall Street Tests Appetite for SpaceX’s $40B AI Debt: Right as the AI hardware trade takes a breather, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs and Apollo are shopping SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) $40 billion AI debt deal to institutional investors—pitching pieces of up to $500 million ahead of formal syndication for its off-balance-sheet GPU lease structure.
- Consumer & Healthcare Keep Working: Shoppers and defensive pockets continue to show real resilience. Costco (NASDAQ: COST) posted an 11.1% jump in October comp sales, e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) doubled Q3 EPS estimates and hiked its full-year outlook, and Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), Celsius (NASDAQ: CELH), Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON), and Krispy Kreme (NASDAQ: DNUT) all topped expectations.
Under the hood, two boardroom battles for consumer wallets are heating up:
- Wendy’s Rejects Nelson Peltz, Swallows a Poison Pill: Wendy’s (NASDAQ: WEN) beat Q3 estimates this morning and rejected billionaire Nelson Peltz’s $1.4 billion buyout bid, adopting a “poison pill” shareholder rights plan to block a lowball takeover. Backing its “Dave’s Way” turnaround strategy instead, the board’s independent committee said the “proposal substantially undervalues the Company, does not reflect the value the Independent Committee expects to be created through the system’s execution of Dave’s Way, and is not in the best interests of Wendy’s and its shareholders.”
- The Delivery Bundling Arms Race: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) partnered with Uber (NYSE: UBER) this morning to offer Prime members $0 delivery fees on Uber Eats, and Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT) countered alongside DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH) by launching “Lyft Go”—a bundled rideshare and delivery membership program.
STN Desk Takeaway: As our STN Market Conditions put it this morning, it’s a brisk autumn fog heading into the bell—with SMH still hammered while consumer staples continue their climb. Rather than fighting the tape, watch key technical levels like $450 on AMD for bounces while following the rotation into software and consumer winners.