AJ Fabino, Senior Editor, Stock Trader Network

There has been no shortage of chatter on Wall Street that SpaceX’s (SPCX) valuation has detached from reality.

Blue Origin’s fundraise makes that argument harder to press, at least on SpaceX’s space businesses.

Jeff Bezos’s company is seeking $10 billion at a $130 billion pre-money valuation, according to Reuters, giving investors a current market price for a launch-centered aerospace company that still trails SpaceX badly in cadence, revenue and commercial reach.

That comparison matters because Blue Origin is being valued on future capacity more than present output. The nascent space company remains focused on launch services, rocket engines and government programs, and it is still working back from the May explosion of its New Glenn rocket during testing.

The company does not have a Starlink-sized recurring revenue engine, it does not have a comparable subscriber network, and it does not launch at anything like SpaceX’s pace.

To judge whether SpaceX is overvalued, Stock Trader Network broke the company into its three major pieces.

The first is launch and government space work, including Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship and national-security and NASA programs. STN’s internal work puts that segment at roughly $4.1 billion of 2025 revenue. Reuters reported that SpaceX’s overall sales rose 33% last year to $18.67 billion. That is the starting point for the comparison, because Blue Origin’s $130 billion valuation is being assigned to a business that is still trying to build the sort of launch position SpaceX already has.

The second is Starlink, which has become the company’s cash engine. Starlink accounted for about 60% of SpaceX’s 2025 sales, according to Reuters, and served roughly 10.3 million users. STN’s research puts Starlink revenue at about $11.4 billion and operating profit at about $4.42 billion last year. Even leaving the profit figure aside, its revenue data alone shows that SpaceX already owns a scaled, global connectivity asset that Blue Origin does not have.

The third is xAI. Musk folded xAI into SpaceX in February in a deal that valued xAI at $250 billion and SpaceX at $1 trillion at the time. That merger changed the valuation debate. SpaceX is no longer being judged only as a rocket company or even as a rocket-and-broadband company. It now contains a large AI business alongside launch and connectivity.

That is where the sum-of-the-parts work begins.

SpaceX’s public market value has recently been around $1.96 trillion. If Blue Origin’s $130 billion round is used as a baseline for raw space capability, then roughly $1.83 trillion of SpaceX’s value sits outside that comparison.

That remainder is what investors are assigning to the premium on SpaceX’s more advanced launch position, to Starlink’s operating business and to xAI’s AI infrastructure ambitions.

The subtraction matters because it clarifies the debate.

Blue Origin’s round argues that the market is already willing to pay $130 billion for a company with a far thinner operating base. SpaceX’s launch business therefore cannot sensibly be discussed as though it were worth no more than Blue Origin’s. Starlink, which already contributes most of SpaceX’s sales, adds another asset that Blue Origin does not have. xAI adds a third business entirely, one Reuters reported entered the structure at a $250 billion valuation.

That does not mean SpaceX is cheap, but it does mean the overvaluation case has to be made more carefully. Blue Origin’s round weakens the argument that SpaceX is wildly overvalued on launch and connectivity alone.

The larger valuation question now sits with xAI and the AI buildout wrapped around the company. On the evidence currently available, Blue Origin’s financing makes SpaceX look less like a market absurdity than the expensive, more fully built leader in a sector investors are valuing on a very long horizon.

STN Takeaway: At $150 per share, SpaceX does not look overvalued relative to Blue Origin. Blue Origin’s $130 billion round puts a rich price on a far less developed space business, which makes the bear case on SpaceX’s launch and Starlink assets harder to press.