Markets come back to an important week… be sure to read to the end to find out why!

Investors will see retail sales Tuesday, the Fed’s policy decision and press conference Wednesday, housing data midweek, and September options expiration Friday.

Upcoming Earnings

• Monday, Sep. 15
  • Hain Celestial (HAIN) – before market open
  • Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) – after market close
• Tuesday, Sep. 16
  • Ferguson (FERG) – before market open
• Wednesday, Sep. 17
  • General Mills (GIS) – before market open
  • Cracker Barrel (CBRL) – after market close
• Thursday, Sep. 18
  • FactSet (FDS) – before market open
  • Darden Restaurants (DRI) – before market open
  • FedEx (FDX) – after market close
• Friday, Sep. 19
  • Lennar (LEN) – before market open

Economic Data (times are in Eastern Daylight Timezone)

• Monday, Sep. 15
  • 8:30 a.m. – Empire State Manufacturing Survey, from NY Fed
• Tuesday, Sep. 16
  • 8:30 a.m. – Retail Sales, from Census Bureau
  • 8:30 a.m. – Import Price Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 9:15 a.m. – Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Fed
  • 10:00 a.m. – Business Inventories, Census Bureau
  • 10:00 a.m. – NAHB Housing Market Index
• Wednesday, Sep. 17
  • 8:30 a.m. – Housing Starts and Building Permits, Census Bureau
  • 2:00 p.m. – FOMC policy statement
  • 2:30 p.m. – Chair Powell press conference
• Thursday, Sep. 18
  • 8:30 a.m. – Initial Jobless Claims, Department of Labor
  • 8:30 a.m. – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 10:00 a.m. – Leading Economic Index, Conference Board
• Friday, Sep. 19
  • No releases on the primary calendars

Upcoming Conferences

• Wolfe Research 2nd Annual Canadian Quantitative and Macro Investment Conference – Tuesday, Sep. 16
• Stifel Immunology and Inflammation Forum – Sep. 15–16
• Leerink “Healthcare in the Heartland” – Sep. 15–16

Other Macro Catalysts

• Treasury bill auctions: 13- and 26-week Monday, 6-week Tuesday
• 20-year bond auction Tuesday
• 10-year TIPS auction Thursday
• Quarterly options expiration Friday Sep 19. Expect elevated volume and potential pinning
• S&P indices quarterly rebalances effective around Friday’s close

Why This Week Matters

Policy meets positioning. Markets are leaning toward a 25-basis point cut on Wednesday with a small chance of a larger move.

The data cadence hits every sensitive spot for equities. Retail sales tests the consumer pillar. Industrial production updates the manufacturing picture. Housing starts and permits help frame rate-sensitive activity just hours before the Fed decision. Jobless claims and the Philly Fed on Thursday feed the growth read as we slide into options expiration on Friday.

Add mechanics. September options expiration and index rebalances can magnify moves around levels, especially with mega-caps and homebuilders in the mix as Lennar prints and FedEx gives a “real-economy” update.